We are days, if not weeks, away from grasping the enormity of human losses from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami but already number crunches are looking at the potential economic and investment consequences.
Comparisons are already being made with the enormous 1995 Kobe earthquake but the consequences of the 11 March catastrophe appear to be far more extensive with major impacts on road networks, power plants and infrastructure. The instability of up to 11 nuclear reactors adds a whole new layer of uncertainty and frailty to this unfolding situation.
As an event this Sendai tragedy has a traumatic and emotional power similar to 9-11, although the context is completely different. This is bigger than any man-made disaster, any media commentary and any economist's forecasts. This has the feeling of a history-changing event.
The one thing that is sure is that Japan's already fragile economy will remain so for at least the short to medium term. The enormity of the search and rescue operation, let alone the salvage and rebuild strategies will put huge stress on the domestic economy and on Japan's allies around the world who are already coping with their own weak domestic economic situations and their pledges to offer support to other unstable regions and countries.
Our hearts are with the people of Japan. Our heads say it is just a little bit too early to be looking at the investment pros and cons.
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